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Festival handicaps impress Smith26th February 2010
British Horseracing Authority senior handicapper Phil Smith believes the improved quality of horses in the United Kingdom is making it increasingly difficult for connections to get a run in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps.
Smith unveiled the weights for the 11 handicaps yesterday and was quick to highlight the increasing strength in depth of the races - a point underscored by another bumper subscription to the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.
A total of 177 entries have been made for a race with a 24-runner safety limit, and the ante-post favourite Qaspal needs 97 runners to drop out for a run in the March 19 event.
Smith said: "The quality of animals in this country is making it increasingly difficult to get a run. More and more horses are wanting to run at the Cheltenham Festival as it is so important to owners and trainers.
"The general trend over the last six or seven years in British racing is that owners have been able to purchase the best possible bloodstock, which is great for the domestic sport. The strength at the top filters down and it has meant that the ratings needed to get a run have also increased.
"For example, Kelami won the William Hill Trophy in 2005 off a mark of 133 but he wouldn't have even got a run last year.
"Four or five years ago you would not know where the next Gold Cup or World Hurdle horse was coming from and the races kept going for export but the winners are now British trained. Ireland do not have the quality they had four or five years ago and the ratings of their horses mean the majority of their runners are in handicaps."
Those charged with framing the weights for the handicaps fear the unusual circumstances of this jumps season have made their jobs harder than ever.
With the ground having been testing for most of the season, a number of horses have been allotted their weights on the basis of form that may be irrelevant when the horse encounters a quicker surface at the Festival.
Smith, is also wary of the novices lining up this year: "Novices don't usually have a great record in the handicaps but it could be different this year. It is hard to assess the strength of their form as a cohort, as many of them haven't run outside of novice company," he said.
Bellvano, Pepe Simo, Tito Bustillo and Salden Licht could all make their handicap debuts in the County Hurdle, while Sarando and Quantitativeeasing are possible starters in the Coral Cup.
"You can only rate a horse on the basis of the best form he has achieved and I've assessed Quantitativeeasing on 139 on the basis of his second to Phidippides at Kempton, but with nothing in that race having run in a handicap before or since, there is an obvious element of guesswork involved," said the BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood.
The County Hurdle at last year's Cheltenham Festival was a romp for American Trilogy, above, and the handicappers fear another novice could make a nonsense of their calculations next month.