home >
Cheltenham Festival Betting
Golden Rules of Cheltenham Festival Betting
1. There's no such thing as a sure thing at the Festival! This year that includes horses as heralded as Dunguib and Big Buck's, both currently trading at odds of 4/6 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and World Hurdle respectively. The 4/6 might be an accurate expression of their chances, but that still represents no more than a 60% chance of success. If you were invited to jump from one rooftop to another and told you had a 60% chance of making it, would you do it? In the last ten years (which covers nine meetings because the 2001 Cheltenham Festival was lost to foot and mouth) punters have been let down by 157 outright favourites, 77% of the total.
2. Cheltenham is an idiosyncratic track which doesn’t suit certain horses and it pays dividends to give extra merit to those runners who have already shown winning form around this unique racecourse. For example, Kasbah Bliss was a terrible bet at 10/11 for last year's World Hurdle, largely because he had been beaten on his four previous visits to Cheltenham. Why would you back a horse at odds-on to win a championship race at a course where he has only ever experienced defeat? No fewer than 23 of last season’s 26 Festival winners have entries for this year’s meeting, therefore the first port of call for punters when it comes to analysing this year’s meeting should be last year’s races.
3. Look to last time out winners in all handicap hurdle races. At the last 15 Festivals since 1993 over 50% (26-50) of handicap hurdle races were won by horses successful on their previous start - from just less than 20% overall representation. This is an immensely powerful statistic, especially as many of those were priced at double figure odds (including Shamayoun who in 2006 won the Fred Winter Novices Handicap Hurdle at 40/1).
4. Give serious consideration to French bred chasers in races of up to 2m5f. French breds are all about speed as there are very few races in France beyond 3 miles and French breds posses a glittering overall record in steeplechases at the Festival up to 2m5f. Oh Crick (Grand Annual), Chapotugeon (Jewson), Something Wells (Festival Plate) and Master Minded (Champion Chase) added to their haul last season. In fact, horses with an (FR) suffix came very close to a clean sweep of all 6 chases in last year's Festival up to 2m5f as Kalahari King was beaten a short-head in the Arkle Trophy despite enduring a nightmare passage and, without making a mistake four out, it is more than likely that Voy Por Ustedes would have won the "Ryanair". French-breds also almost had the clean sweep in 2007 as well - winning 5 of the 6 chases up to 2m5f.
5. Beware of top weights in the 6 handicap chases (William Hill Trophy, Cross Country Chase, Jewson Novices, Byrne Group Plate, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup and Johnny Henderson Grand Annual). Weight can be a significant barrier to success in these races and in the last 10 years only 15% (7-46) handicap chase winners carried more than 11st.
6. But don't disregard older horses in these handicap chases. The common perception is that the younger horses fare better in these races, but overall statistics do not bear that out - if we ignore the Jewson (restricted to novices), horses aged 9+ have won over half (21-41) of the handicap chases in the last 10 years.
7. Always check the Tote pools on-course, especially if your selection is a double figure price. Betting with the Tote really comes into its own at the Festival due to the pools attracting far more liquidity than usual and the fact that the Tote's take out from the win pool is only 13 per cent, which gives them more generous margins than bookmakers. The bigger price the winner, the bigger the difference tends to be - for example 2008 Festival Plate winner, Mister McGoldrick, had an SP of 66/1, but you'd have been paid out at 146/1 by the Tote.
8. Don't go too mad too early. Put a bank together that you're comfortable with and have a staking plan sorted out that suits your particular style of betting. This is a 26 race meeting and the final day is the strongest for trends followers - so keep plenty back in reserve.
Online betting
For the latest free bets from the leading online bookmakers click here.
Racecourse betting
The gambling turnover is colossal at Cheltenham, which sets it apart from most other meetings. The on-course Tote bookmaker, which operates on a pool system and pays out according to the number of winning bets placed, alone takes upwards of £2.5 million a day throughout the Festival. Together with other on-course bookies, those who operate off-course and betting exchanges it is reckoned that well over £500 million is gambled in total over the four days.
In fact, Edward Gillespie, Cheltenham’s managing director, believes that some spectators come just to watch the more fearless punters in action. “When people come for the first time they say they’ve never physically seen so much money change hands,” he says. “In our daily lives we don’t often see such handfuls of notes.” These punters include the Geneva-based Irish financier and racehorse owner JP McManus, who has been known to wager more than £500,000 on a race.
Leading owner David Johnson recalls taking at least £500,000 out of the bookies’ “ring” when Well Chief won the Arkle Trophy at the Festival in 2004. “Everyone was on big time,” he says. “We backed him down from 33-1 to 12-1 and then we ran out of money.”
Such bold betting is down to the strength of the market, explains Gillespie. “Put on several thousand pounds at Cheltenham and a bookie doesn’t flinch.” Certainly, if you tried that on the average racecourse on a mid-season Saturday, you’d be lucky if he allowed you £100 each way.
For the average Cheltenham spectator, however, a fiver or tenner each way brings much the same thrill. It is not betting for a life-changing gain but purchasing an interest in the race, a brief share in “ownership”, the right to roar on a particular set of colours, and the chance to celebrate the victory afterwards.
And sometimes, the little man wins too. Regulars won’t forget how Welsh farmer turned trainer, Sirrell Griffiths, won the 1990 Gold Cup with the 100-1 shot Norton’s Coin, having started the day by milking his herd of cows in Carmarthen.
In 1934 Fred Varney, a coach operator, was on the verge of bankruptcy when he wagered all his money on five time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Golden Miller. The horse won, restoring his fortune and Varney repaid the favour by naming his company after the racehorse. The company still operates in South-West London under the name Tellings-Golden Miller.
Legend too has it that the Irishman who won enough on Istabraq in the Champion Hurdle of 1998 to pay off his mortgage, then proceeded to lose his house on Doran’s Pride in the Gold Cup a couple of days later. “It was only a small house anyway,” he is reputed to have said.
There are totepool betting windows situated in every enclosure at Cheltenham racecourse and they are normally open one hour before the first race. There are betting shops in the Best Mate enclosure, Tattersalls, the paddock and for the Festival, in the Guinness Village and the Centaur.
The Tattersalls Grandstand provides a betting hall, betting shops on Levels 1 and 3 and totepool windows in all areas, including table service in the Panoramic Restaurant. The Centaur includes a betting shop.
The unavoidable crush to get to the on-course bookmakers before Friday's Gold Cup