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Cheltenham Festival - Big Race Trends
One of the great advantages the National Hunt game has over its Flat counterpart is the focal point that the Cheltenham Festival gives to the season. It is the pinnacle of each campaign, and all of the top horses have their season’s mapped out in advance with the sole aim of peaking in March.
Accordingly, many of the big races earlier in the year are not only prestigious events in their own right, but are also key trials for the Festival. These races provide punters with vital form clues and it is not surprising that some significant trends have developed over the years.
The following races have proved to be the best trials in the last twenty years:
15 FESTIVAL WINNERS
King George VI Chase (3 Miles)
The King George (run at Kempton on Boxing Day) has been the most successful race when it comes to highlighting Festival winners later in the season.
In the last 20 years, 15 Festival winners ran in that season’s King George, including ten Gold Cup winners and four Champion Chasers. Last season, Our Vic finished second in the King George and went on to win the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.
Eight horses have completed the King George/Gold Cup double in the same season, the most recent of which was Kauto Star in 2006/07. In fact that season, the first and second in the King George was repeated in the Gold Cup, with Exotic Dancer second in both.
The eight King George winners between 1985 and 1992 all finished in the first four of that year’s Gold Cup.
However, it isn’t just the King George winners that need to be considered. See More Business in 1999 and Looks Like Trouble in 2000 both won the Gold Cup, having previously been pulled up in the King George.
2008/09 result (26 December 2008)
1st Kauto Star
2nd Albertas Run
3rd Voy Por Ustedes
4th Briareus
5th Air Force One
6th Imperial Commander
7th Snoopy Loopy
8th Tamarinbleu
PU Our Vic
PU Mont Misere
11 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Victor Chandler Chase (2 Miles)
The record of Victor Chandler winner’s at the Festival is remarkable and surprising.
Despite being a handicap, in the last 20 years the race has produced six Champion Chasers and two Gold Cup winners, but only two Festival handicap winners.
However, Call Equiname, in 1999, was the last horse to win the VC Chase and a race at the Festival in the same season, so horses beaten in the race mustn’t be discounted, even if reappearing in one of the Festival’s blue riband events.
2007 winner, Dempsey, did run a cracker to come second in the 2007 Queen Mother Champion Chase, whilst 3rd placed Andreas and 2nd placed Hasty Prince went on to finish 1st and 2nd respectively in the 2007 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase.
2008/09 result (17 January 2009)
1st Master Minded
2nd Petit Robin
3rd Mahogany Blaze
4th Or Noir De Somoza
5th Natal
10 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Totesport Trophy Handicap Hurdle (2 Miles ½ Furlong)
The Totesport Trophy is a prominent guide to the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle at the Festival with 4 winners in the last 7 years having first contested the Totesport Trophy (Spirit Leader won both in 2003).
Also, Idole First (2005) and Monkerhostin (2004) were both placed in the Totesport Trophy before winning the Coral Cup at the Festival.
2008/09 result (7 February 2009)
Race Abandoned9 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Tingle Creek Chase (2 Miles)
The winner of the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown almost always has the Champion Chase as his Festival target and three horses have done the double in the last 20 years - most recently Moscow Flyer in 2005.
In addition, during that period, five horses who ran in that season’s Tingle Creek have gone on to win the Champion Chase, including Voy Por Ustedes in 2007.
The 1988 winner, Desert Orchid, went on to win the Gold Cup at the Festival, as did Kauto Star in 2007.
2008/09 result (6 December 2008)
1st Master Minded
2nd Tidal Bay
3rd Takeroc
4th Mahogany Blaze
5th L'Antartique
F Fiepes Shuffle
F Twist Magic
8 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Cleeve Hurdle (3 Miles)
Given that the Cleeve hurdle is run at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day, it perhaps isn’t surprising that it has produced eight Festival winners in the last 20 years. That record might even have been better had three renewals not been abandoned due to bad weather.
Included in those eight are five Stayers (World) Hurdle winners and two Champion Hurdlers (Flakey Dove and Hardy Eustace).
However, the race is unlikely to uncover any Champion Hurdlers in the future as the race distance was increased to 3 miles from 2 miles 5 furlongs in 2005.
Last season Inglis Drever became the first horse in the period to do the Cleeve Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle double (he was second in this race the year before and also went on to win the Stayers Hurdle).
2008/09 result (24 January 2009)
1st Big Buck's
2nd Punchestowns
3rd Fair Along
4th Lough Derg
5th No Refuge
6th Blazing Bailey
7th Turpin Green
8th Pettifour
7 FESTIVAL WINNERS
BGC Long Walk Hurdle (3 Miles 1 Furlong)
The Long Walk Hurdle is by far the most significant guide to the Stayers (World) Hurdle at the Festival, with 7 winners since 1989 put through their paces in the Long Walk three months earlier (although only 2 of these 7 actually won both races).
Last season, Kasbah Bliss (5th in the Long Walk), came close to improving this statistic when an honourable runner-up to the mighty Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.
2008/09 result (20 December 2008)
1st Punchestowns
2nd Duc De Regniere
3rd Mobaasher
4th Blazing Bailey
5th Pettifour
Irish Champion Hurdle (2 Miles)
In 2006, Brave Inca became the fifth horse in the last twenty years to do the English and Irish Champion Hurdle double. Indeed this has been a regular occurance in recent years – helped by Istabraq’s dominance of the hurdling scene around the turn of the century.
The Leopardstown race has, therefore, become the most reliable guide to the Champion Hurdle.
Danoli was second in the Irish Champion Hurdle in 1994 and went on to win the Sun Alliance Hurdle - now the Ballymore Properties Hurdle - at the Festival.
2008/09 result (25 January 2009)
1st Brave Inca
2nd Muirhead
3rd River Liane
4th Sublimity
5th Hardy Eustace
6th Larkwing
7th Beau Michael
8th Swiftmarc
9th Allez Petit
Deloitte Novices Hurdle (2 Miles 2 Furlongs)
With the general increase in Irish trained Festival winners in recent years, the Deloitte Novices hurdle has emerged as one of the most reliable guides to both the Supreme Novices Hurdle and the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle.
The timing of the race fits perfectly into the racing calendar coming as it does some four or five weeks before Cheltenham, and it has produced four winners, a second and a third going on to win either the AIG Supreme Novices (x3) or Ballymore Properties Novices (x3) in the last twenty years at the Festival.
Incredibly, it has also produced the winner of the 4 mile National Hunt Chase – Deejaydee was fourth in the race in 1999. Two other placed horses Tourist Attraction in 1995 and Hardy Eustace in 2003 also improved on their efforts at Leopardstown to win their chosen Festival races.
2008/09 result (8 February 2009)
1st Pandorama
2nd Western Charmer
3rd Zarinava
UR Cousin Vinny
Racing Post Chase (3 Miles)
Kempton’s Racing Post Chase day is one of the most informative meetings of the year, and the feature event of the day has itself produced seven Festival winners.
Being a high class three mile chase it has had an impact on a number of races at the Festival, with the seven winners being made up of two in the Kim Muir, two in the William Hill Trophy, and one each in the Gold Cup (The Fellow in 1993), the Racing Post Plate and the Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase (no longer run).
Glora Victis, who won the race in scintillating fashion in 2000, may well have increased the roll of honour yet further had he in not fallen in such tragic circumstances in the Gold Cup a few weeks later.
2008/09 result (21 February 2009)
1st Nacarat
2nd Possol
3rd Big Fella Thanks
4th Hold Em
5th Ollie Magern
6th Conna Castle
7th Piraya
8th Lacdoudal
9th Billyvoddan
10th Oedipe
11th Stan
12th Fier Normand
13th Nozic
14th Fleet Street
Totescoop6 Sandown Handicap Hurdle (2 Miles 6 Furlongs)
This competitive handicap has produced three Pertemps Final winners in the last twenty years, a Coral Cup winner, a Stayers (World) Hurdle winner and the 2007 Ryanair Chase winner.
Amazingly, it has also produced a Champion Hurdle winner – Beech Road was ninth in the race in 1989.
Baracouda was second in the 2004 World Hurdle after winning this race at Sandown under the welter burden of 11st 12lbs and the 2007 winner, Taranis, went onto the Festival to win the Ryanair Chase.
2008/09 result (31 January 2009)
1st Chief Yeoman
2nd Ballydub
3rd Night Cru
4th Otto des Pictons
5th Khachaturian
6th Hills Of Aran
7th How's Business
8th Blue Shark
9th Jaunty Journey
10th Six Day War
11th Cruchain
12th Rathcor
13th Group
PU Coda Agency
6 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Boylesports International Hurdle (2 Miles)
Another trial run at Cheltenham - formerly known as the Bula Hurdle - it always attracts the best hurdlers in training and it is perhaps surprising that this race hasn’t uncovered more than six Festival winners in the last 20 years.
Now worth an incredible £200,000, making the race the second most valuable hurdle event in both Britain and Ireland, behind the Champion Hurdle. Plus the sponsors have added £200,000 if the winner goes on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season, but only six horses have completed the double with the popular grey Rooster Booster being the last in 2002-2003.
However, last season proved the importance of this race in the Champion Hurdle build-up with the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in the International Hurdle finishing 2nd, 1st, 4th and 7th respectively in the 2008 Champion Hurdle (Katchit reversing places with Osana to win at the Festival).
Inglis Drever finished second in this race in 2005 before winning the Stayers (World) Hurdle later in the season.
It should be noted that this seasons race was run at Ascot, after the abadonment of the Cheltenham meeting where it had been scheduled:
2008/09 result (20 December 2008)
1st Binocular
2nd Celestial Halo
3rd Chomba Womba
4th Katchit
5th Crack Away Jack
Tolworth Hurdle (2 Miles)
Although this race has provided six Festival winners in the last 20 years, Noland in 2006 was only the second horse to do the Tolworth Hurdle / Supreme Novices Hurdle double during that time (Forest Sun also completed this double in 1990).
The Tolworth actually has also unearthed 2 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle winners and interestingly has also produced two Triumph Hurdle winners – Upgrade who was fifth in 1998 and Snow Drop (fourth in 2000).
The 2000 renewal was actually one of the best novice hurdles run in recent memory, with Monsignor (2000 Sun Alliance Hurdle winner) beating Best Mate, with Snow Drop fourth.
2008/09 result (3 January 2008)
Race AbandonedChristmas Hurdle (2 Miles)
The Christmas Hurdle (usually run at Kempton) has produced six Festival winners in the last twenty years, including three Champion Hurdlers. This is despite the obvious differences between Kempton’s flat, right handed track and the left handed, undulating course at Cheltenham.
All of the winners of the last twenty Christmas Hurdles who have been fit to contest an event at Cheltenham have run in the Champion. However, placed horses have had considerable success in other events, notably the County Hurdle.
Hors La Loi III was the last horse to do the Christmas Hurdle / Champion Hurdle double in 2002.
2008/09 result (26 December 2008)
1st Harchibald
2nd Snap Tie
3rd Blue Bajan
4th Straw Bear
5 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Paddy Power Gold Cup (2 Miles 4½ Furlongs)
The third of the trial races run at Cheltenham, runners in the Paddy Power provided the first three winners of the Ryanair Chase.
A problem in the past had been that winners of this race invariably faced a significant hike up the handicap, making it difficult to follow up at the Festival. However, the new Ryanair Chase provides a level weights contest for Paddy Power winners to be aimed at. The significance of the race as a Festival pointer, therefore, looks set to grow.
Butler's Cabin finished 4th in this race in 2007 and followed up by winning the National Hunt Chase.
2008/09 result (15 November 2008)
1st Imperial Commander
2nd Barbers Shop
3rd Private Be
4th Il Duce
5th Three Mirrors
6th Silverburn