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Big Race Trends
One of the great advantages the National Hunt game has over its Flat counterpart is the focal point that the Cheltenham Festival gives to the season. It is the pinnacle of each campaign, and all of the top horses have their season’s mapped out in advance with the sole aim of peaking in March.
Accordingly, many of the big races earlier in the year are not only prestigious events in their own right, but are also key trials for the Festival. These races provide punters with vital form clues and it is not surprising that some significant trends have developed over the years.
The following races have proved to be the best trials in the last twenty years:
15 FESTIVAL WINNERS
King George VI Chase (3 Miles)
The King George (usually run at Kempton on Boxing Day) has been the most successful race when it comes to highlighting Festival winners later in the season.
In the last 21 years, 15 Festival winners ran in that season’s King George, including ten Gold Cup winners and four Champion Chasers.
Eight horses have completed the King George/Gold Cup double in the same season, the most recent of which was Kauto Star last year. In fact last year, the first and second in the King George was repeated in the Gold Cup, with Exotic Dancer second in both.
The eight King George winners between 1985 and 1992 all finished in the first four of that year’s Gold Cup.
However, it isn’t just the King George winners that need to be considered. See More Business in 1999 and Looks Like Trouble in 2000 both won the Gold Cup, having previously been pulled up in the King George.
2007/8 result (26 December 2007)
1st Kauto Star
2nd Our Vic
3rd Exotic Dancer
4th Racing Demon
5th Hi Cloy
11 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Victor Chandler Chase (2 Miles)
The record of Victor Chandler winner’s at the Festival is remarkable and surprising.
Despite being a handicap, in the last 20 years the race has produced six Champion Chasers and two Gold Cup winners, but only two Festival handicap winners.
However, Call Equiname, in 1999, was the last horse to win the VC Chase and a race at the Festival in the same season, so horses beaten in the race mustn’t be discounted, even if reappearing in one of the Festival’s blue riband events.
Last year's winner Dempsey ran a cracker to come second in the 2007 Queen Mother Champion Chase, whilst 3rd placed Andreas and 2nd placed Hasty Prince went on to finish 1st and 2nd respectively in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase.
2007/8 result (19 January 2008)
1st Tamarinbleu
2nd Twist Magic
3rd Mansony
4th Schindlers Hunt
5th Hoo La Baloo
8 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Irish Champion Hurdle (2 Miles)
In 2006, Brave Inca became the sixth horse in the last twenty years to do the English and Irish Champion Hurdle double. Indeed this has been a regular occurance in recent years – helped by Istabraq’s dominance of the hurdling scene around the turn of the century.
The Leopardstown race has, therefore, become the most reliable guide to the Champion Hurdle and unsurprisingly this year's winner, Sizing Europe, has been installed as favourite for the 2008 Champion Hurdle.
Danoli was second in the Irish Champion Hurdle in 1994 and went on to win the Sun Alliance Hurdle at the Festival.
2007/8 result (27 January 2008)
1st Sizing Europe
2nd Hardy Eustace
3rd Al Eile
4th Lounaos
5th Ebaziyan
7 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Deloitte Novices Hurdle (2 Miles 2 Furlongs)
With the general increase in Irish trained Festival winners in recent years, the Deloitte Novices hurdle has emerged as one of the most reliable guides to both the Supreme Novices Hurdle and the Sun Alliance Hurdle.
The timing of the race fits perfectly into the racing calendar coming as it does some four or five weeks before Cheltenham, and it has produced three winners in the last twenty years of the big novice hurdles at the Festival.
Incredibly, it has also produced the winner of the 4 mile National Hunt Chase – Deejaydee was fourth in the race in 1999. Two other placed horses Tourist Attraction in 1995 and Hardy Eustace in 2003 also improved on their efforts at Leopardstown to win their chosen Festival races.
2007/8 result (10 February 2008)
1st Forpadydeplasterer
2nd Cork All Star
3rd Tranquil Sea
4th Our Bob
5th Whatuthink
Racing Post Chase (3 Miles) - 23 February 2008
Kempton’s Racing Post Chase day is one of the most informative meetings of the year, and the feature event of the day has itself produced seven Festival winners.
Being a high class, three mile chase it has had an impact on a number of races at the Festival, with the seven winners being made up of two in the Kim Muir, two in the William Hill Trophy, and one each in the Gold Cup (The Fellow in 1993), the Racing Post Plate and the Cathcart.
Glora Victis, who won the race in scintillating fashion in 2000, may well have increased the roll of honour yet further had he in not fallen in such tragic circumstances in the Gold Cup a few weeks later.
2006/7 result
1st Simon
2nd Cornish Sett
3rd Lacdoudal
4th Lucifer Bleu
5th Iznogoud
Tingle Creek Chase (2 Miles)
The winner of the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown almost always has the Champion Chase as his Festival target and three horses have done the double in the last 21 years.
In addition, during that period seven horses who were placed in that season’s Tingle Creek have gone on to win the Champion Chase, including Voy Por Ustedes last year (who also came 2nd this season).
The 1988 winner, Desert Orchid, went on to win the Gold Cup at the Festival, as did Kauto Star who won the Tingle Creek last year.
2007/8 result (8 December 2007)
1st Twist Magic
2nd Voy Por Ustedes
3rd Monet's Garden
4th Hoo La Baloo
5th Ashley Brook
Watch the 2007/08 Tingle Creek Chase by clicking play button below:
Tolworth Hurdle (2 Miles)
Although this race has provided seven Festival winners in the last 20 years, Noland last season was only the second horse to do the Tolworth Hurdle / Supreme Novices Hurdle double during that time.
The Tolworth actually has a better record in unearthing Sun Alliance Hurdle winners (three since 1997). Interestingly, it has also produced two Triumph Hurdle winners – Snow Drop who was fourth in 2000 and Upgrade (fifth in 1998).
The 2000 renewal was probably one of the best novice hurdles run in recent memory, with Monsignor (2000 Sun Alliance Hurdle winner) beating Best Mate, with Snow Drop fourth.
French Holly, Behrajan, Lingo and Thisthatandtother were also recent Tolworth Hurdle winners.
2007/8 result (5 January 2008)
1st Breedsbreeze
2nd Deep Purple
3rd Calgary Bay
4th Sweetheart
5th Alsadaa
Totescoop6 Sandown Handicap Hurdle (2 Miles 6 Furlongs)
This competitive handicap has produced three Pertemps Final winners in the last twenty years, a Coral Cup winner, a Stayers (World) Hurdle winner and last year's Ryanair Chase winner.
Amazingly, it has also produced a Champion Hurdle winner – Beech Road was ninth in the race in 1989.
Baracouda was second in the 2004 World Hurdle after winning at Sandown under the welter burden of 11st 12lbs and last year's winner Taranis went onto the Festival to win the Ryanair Chase.
2007/8 result (2 February 2008)
1st The Tother One
2nd Warne's Way
3rd Hills Of Aran
4th Mendo
5th Temoin
6 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (2 Miles)
Formerly called the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, before the last two seasons this race at Sandown had produced three Festival winners on the bounce, two in the County Hurdle (including Rooster Booster). However, in the last two seasons, this race has not produced any Festival winners.
In the last 20 years, it has also produced two Champion Hurdlers, Make A Stand (1997) and Celtic Shot (1988), however a change to the conditions of the race means it is no longer a target for the very best hurdlers.
In fact, on soft ground the emphasis is more on stamina than speed and so it may be that we see more and more runners from this race go on to run in races at the Festival like the Coral Cup (as Monkerhostin did successfully in 2004).
2007/8 result (8 December 2007)
1st Ring The Boss
2nd Breedsbreeze
3rd European Dream
4th Wingman
5th Valiant Shadow
Christmas Hurdle (2 Miles)
The Christmas Hurdle (usually run at Kempton) has produced six Festival winners in the last twenty years, including three Champion Hurdlers. This is despite the obvious differences between Kempton’s flat, right handed track and the left handed, undulating course at Cheltenham.
All of the winners of the last twenty Christmas Hurdles who have been fit to contest an event at Cheltenham have run in the Champion. However, placed horses have had considerable success in other events, notably the County Hurdle.
Hors La Loi III was the last horse to do the Christmas Hurdle / Champion Hurdle double in 2002.
2007/8 result (26 December 2007)
1st Straw Bear
2nd Harchibald
3rd Penzance
4th Punjabi
5th Gwanako
Cleeve Hurdle (3 Miles)
Given that the Cleeve hurdle is run at Cheltenham, it perhaps isn’t surprising that it has produced six Festival winners in the last 20 years. That record might even have been better had four renewals not been abandoned due to bad weather.
Included in those six are three Stayers (World) Hurdle winners and two Champion Hurdlers (Flakey Dove and Hardy Eustace).
However, the race is unlikely to uncover any Champion Hurdlers in the future as the race distance was increased to 3 miles from 2 miles 5 furlongs in 2005.
No horse in the period has done the Cleeve Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle double and so it pays not to ignore horses placed in this race before going on to the Festival, such as Inglis Drever who was second in this race last year and went on to win the Stayers Hurdle. Interestingly, Inglis Drever went one better this season, winning the Cleve Hurdle!
2007/8 result (26 January 2008)
1st Inglis Drever
2nd Blazing Bailey
3rd Gone To Lunch
4th Chief Dan George
5th Millenium Royal
5 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Boylesports International (2 Miles)
Another trial run at Cheltenham - formerly known as the Bula Hurdle - it always attracts the best hurdlers in training and it is perhaps surprising that this race hasn’t uncovered more than five Festival winners in the last 20 years.
Now worth an incredible £200,000, making the race the second most valuable hurdle event in both Britain and Ireland, behind the Champion Hurdle. Plus the sponsors have added £200,000 if the winner goes on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season, but only six horses have completed the double with the popular grey Rooster Booster being the last in 2002-2003.
Of those five, four have won the Champion Hurdle, including Rooster Booster, who was the only horse in the period to do the Champion Hurdle / Bula Hurdle double.
Inglis Drever finished second in this race in 2005 before winning the Stayers (World) Hurdle later in the season.
2007/8 result (15 December 2007)
1st Osana
2nd Katchit
3rd Penzance
4th Sublimity
5th Afsoun
Paddy Power Gold Cup (2 Miles 4½ Furlongs)
The third of the trial races run at Cheltenham, the Paddy Power has provided the winner of the Cathcart twice (Half Free in 1986 and 1987) and the Grand Annual.
More significantly, perhaps, it provided the first two winners of the Ryanair Chase to date. Thisthatandtother was second here before winning the inaugural running of the Ryanair in 2005, whilst Fondmort was fourth in the Paddy Power before winning at the Festival in 2006.
A problem in the past has been that winners of this race have invariably faced a significant hike up the handicap, making it difficult to follow up at the Festival. However, the new Ryanair Chase provides a level weights contest for Paddy Power winners to be aimed at. The significance of the race as a Festival pointer, therefore, looks set to grow.
2007/8 result (17 November 2007)
1st L´Antartique
2nd Il Duce
3rd Knowhere
4th Palarshan
5th Patman Du Charmil
Watch the 2007/08 Paddy Power Gold Cup by clicking play button below:
Rendlesham Hurdle (3 Miles) - 16 February 2008
The Rendlesham is another of the top Festival trials run at Kempton on Racing Post Chase day.
In the last 20 years, it has produced three winners of the Stayers (World) Hurdle, plus winners of the Coral Cup and the Pertemps Final. Three winners of the Rendlesham went on to be placed in the Stayers.
Balasani (1994) and Baracouda (2002) did the Rendlesham / Stayers double.
2006/7 result
1st Labelthou
2nd Afrad
3rd Material World
4th French Furze
5th Witch Wind
4 FESTIVAL WINNERS
Pierse Hurdle (2 Miles)
The Pierse Hurdle no longer attracts the same calibre of horse as it did in the 1970s when it was known as the Irish Sweeps Hurdle. Back then, winners included Persian War, Comedy of Errors and Night Nurse.
In the last 20 years, it has become more of a guide to some of the big Festival handicaps, than to the Champion Hurdle Of the four winners it has uncovered in that period, three have been successful in the Coral Cup, despite the fact it is run over five furlongs further.
The other winner was Spirit Leader who was fifth in this race before going on to win the County Hurdle.
2007/8 result (13 January 2008)
1st Barker
2nd Brave Right
3rd Silver Jaro
4th Roman Villa
5th Jayo