2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Trends

Richard Johnson celebrates winning the Gold Cup on Native River

Richard Johnson celebrates winning the Gold Cup on Native River

2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Trends

It’s the final day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. Daniel Overall has studied all the races and come up with the horses who fit all the key stats and trends, including the Gold Cup

Triumph Hurdle Key Trends

  • Nicky Henderson has trained the winner seven times
  • Four of the past six winners were French-bred; a further three finished second in that timeframe
  • Nine of the past 11 winners contested either the Finesse (2), Adonis (2) or the Spring Juvenile (5) on their last start. The last Adonis winner to do the double was Zarkandar in 2011
  • Only two of the past 13 winners had more than three runs
  • The past 22 runners all ran in the calendar year
  • Gordon Elliott was recorded two wins and two seconds from just six runners in the past seven renewals
  • Eight of the past 12 winners were unbeaten

Triumph Hurdle Trends verdict

 Quilixios won the Spring Juvenile hurdle last time out and his (former) trainer does well in this race. He’s unbeaten thus far although he has had four starts over hurdles which is slight negative in relation to the trends.

County Hurdle Trends

  • Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins have won three renewals apiece in the past six years – Willie has won five of the past 11 renewals with a further seven finishing in the first four; he’s run 35 in this race in that time
  • Thirteen of the past 15 winners were rated in the 130s. The two exceptions came in the past four renewals; Artic Fire off 158 in 2017 and Ch’tibello off 146 in 2019. Others high in the weights have placed recently too; Aramon (149) and We Have A Dream (152) both came second in the past two renewals
  • Sixteen of the past 18 winners were either novices or second-season novices
  • Saint Roi (2020) was the first handicap debutant to win since 1993
  • Eleven of the past 22 winners were five-year-olds. Only five winners this century were older than six
  • Last five winners had not raced in the calendar year
  • Six of the past seven winner had run at Cheltenham before; all beaten. Again, Saint Roi was the exception

County Hurdle Trends Verdict

None match the trends exactly, but Gowel Road ticks a lot of boxes as a five-year-old rated 137 with handicap experience.

Albert Bartlett Hurdle Trends

  • Fourteen of the past 16 winners contested a Graded novice on their previous start
  • Fifteen of the past 16 winners had won or placed in a Graded novice hurdle. Monkfish (2020) being the exception, although three behind him all won a Graded novice hurdle that season
  • Eight of the past ten winners won or placed in a bumper
  • Thirteen of the past 16 winners were aged either six of seven. Moulin Riche (2005) and Very Wood (2014) were five-years-old; Unowhatimeanharry (2016) the sole eight-year-old winner
  • Minella Indo (2019) is the sole winner to have had less than three prior starts over hurdles
  • Only one of the past 16 winners didn’t finish in the top three last time out

Albert Bartlett Hurdle Trends verdict

Stattler has a solid profile for this race and Willie Mullins has enjoyed more success in reent years.

Gold Cup Trends

  • Nineteen of the past 21 winners had twelve or less chase starts
  • Sixteen of the past 20 winners won last-time-out
  • Sixteen of the past 20 winners had won or placed at a precious festival
  • Those beaten in the race previously have a poor record
  • Twelve of the past 13 winners had run no more than three times that season. Four of the last eight have only run once that season; they all won that sole start
  • Only two winners this century failed to finish first or second last time out
  • Only two winners this century had run over a trip further than 3m2f
  • No winner this century has been aged ten or over. Ages of the twenty winners since 2000; six (1), seven (6), eight (8), nine (5)
  • Every winner this century had already won a Grade 1
  • Four horses have won three (or more) Gold Cups: Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate. There were odds on for their third victory, Golden Miller was 6/5f

Gold Cup Trends verdict

It’s hard to be too critical of Al Boum Photo, who is still only a nine-year-old with twelve chase starts to his name. Coming off the same preparation that has proved so successful, he has a good chance.

Hunter Chase Trends

  • The last six winners were either ten or eleven-years-old. Only one of the past thirty winners were older than eleven. From 2005-2014, nine of the ten winners were aged nine or younger
  • Six of the past eleven winners finished in the first five in last year’s renewal
  • Only three winners this century didn’t win or place last time out. Eight of the past 13 winners arrived on the back of a win
  • Seven of the past ten winners were trained in Ireland
  • Nine of the past eleven winners were officially rated 134 or higher
  • No British bred winner since 2002
  • Twenty-six of the past 32 winners started their careers in point-to-points or hunters’ chases

Hunter Chase Trends verdict

Last year’s second Billaway has a solid profile for this race.

Mares Chase Trends

This is the first running so no trends to go on

Martin Pipe Hurdle Trends

  • Nine winners were second season hurdlers; the other three were novices. Ten of the 12 winners had eight or less starts over hurdles
  • All 12 winners were aged seven or younger
  • Gigginstown; four wins, six placed from just 15 runners
  • All winners have carried more than 11 stone
  • Nine of the past ten winners finished in the first three on their last start
  • Willie Mullins has won this three times; all three of his winners were novices
  • Only one of the Irish trained winners had previously run in a handicap. Early Doors (2019) ran in the 2018 renewal of the race
  • Six of the past seven winners had run over further

Martin Pipe Hurdle Trends verdict:

Gentleman De Mee can be another novice winner for Willie Mullins. Like Sir Des Champs, he has only had one run in Ireland; a victory over two miles. He ticks a lot of boxes and a big run is expected off 139.

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