2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Trends – All the Stats for Wednesday’s Card
2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Trends
Daniel Overall has returned with all the stats that you need to make day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival a success. So from the Ballymore Hurdle to the Champion Bumper, here are the key trends you need.
Ballymore Novice Hurdle Trends
- The Irish have won six of the last seven renewals
- The Challow Hurdle winner has yet to win the Ballymore. This century, their form figures in the Ballymore read: 4d2246232; six of the nine have placed
- Paul Nicholls is yet to win this
- All winners this century were aged either five (5) or six (15). The last seven-year-old winner was French Holly (1998). The last four-year-old winner was Crystal Spirit (1991)
- All bar one of the last 30 winners finished in the first two on their previous start
- Nine of the past 12 winners had won a Graded novice hurdle
- The past 11 winnera had all won a bumper
Ballymore Novice Hurdle Trends Verdict
An Irish trained six-year-old as well as a Grade 1 winner who also won a bumper; Bob Olinger has a solid profile for this race on trends.
Brown Advisory Novice Chase Trends
- The previous 19 winners had all contested a Graded novice chase. 13 of the past 14 winners had finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences; Might Bite is the exception, but he would have won the Grade 1 Kauto Star had he not fallen at the final fence
- Fifteen of the 20 winners this century were seven years old. Three were eight years old, with one winner apiece for five/six-year-olds.
- Eighteen winners this century had between three and five starts over fences – Don Poli being the only winner in that timeframe to have less than three chase starts to his name
- Twenty-three of the past 26 winners only spent one season over hurdles
- Twelve of the past 14 winners had run at a previous festival
Brown Advisory Novice Chase Verdict
He’s carried all before him this season and Monkfish plenty of boxes in terms of the trends too.
Coral Cup Trends
- Seventeen of the 20 winners this century had run a maximum of nine times over hurdles
- Only four winners this century were older than seven-years-old
- Nicky Henderson has won four of the past eleven renewals. All four had won at Cheltenham previously; they are the only four winners to have ever won at Cheltenham before
- Nine of the past twelve winners came from the top eight in the handicap. Class horses can defy a big weight
- Willie Mullins has run 38 in this race since 2010; one winner, but performs below expectations
- Dame De Compagnie (2020) became just the second favourite to win since 2003. Only two of the past twelve winners returned shorter than 12/1
- In the past five renewals, nine horses to finish in the frame had been chasing earlier in the season
Coral Cup Trends verdict
Eighth last year when not getting the best of passages, Birchdale is still lightly raced while he represents the powerful duo of JP McManus and Nicky Henderson. Monte Cristo also ticks a lot of boxes.
Champion Chase Trends
- Six of the past ten Arkle winners to have run here have won; three more finished second
- No mare has ever won the Champion Chase
- Willie Mullins is yet to win this race; Un De Sceaux and Min both finished second
- Nicky Henderson has won five of the past nine renewals
- Twelve of the past 20 winners were previous festival scorers
- The last 12 winners had all raced at Cheltenham previously
- Moscow Flyer (2005) is the last 11-year-old to win; before him, you have to go back to Skymas who won at 11 and 12 in 176 and 177 respectively. But Special Tiara and Sprinter Sacre both won as ten-year-olds in recent renewals
- Only two of the past 30 winners had not run during the calendar year
- All six of the back-to-back winners were a short price to win the second time.
- Only two winners this century have successfully won back-to-back renewals; Master Minded and Altior
- Five of the past 12 winners were unbeaten that season
- The Clarence House has provided seven of the past 12 winners
Champion Chase Trends verdict
In truth, none match up to the trends exactly but First Flow is respected coming off a win in the Clarence House and an unbeaten season. His sole start at Cheltenham came in the 2019 Supreme, when he pulled up having hung right throughout.
Cross-Country Chase Trends
- JP McManus has owned seven of the past 16 winners
- Seven of the past ten winners were aged nine or younger; two others were ten years old
- Only one winner was younger than eight; Easysland was six when winning last season
- Thirteen of the 16 winners had run on the course previously. Only one winner (Rivage d’Or) hadn’t run at either the Cheltenham Cross-Country course or the Punchestown Cross-Country course.
- Thirteen of the 16winners were trained in Ireland. Five of the 13 ran over hurdles as a prep run
- Gordon Elliott has trained thee of the past four winners (Causes of Causes, Tiger Roll x2). From ten runners in the past five years, he’s also had a further four finish second or third
Cross-country Chase Trends verdict
Easysland is respected but Some Neck did well to win on his debut over the banks while he also had a prep run over hurdles.
Grand Annual Chase Trends
- Nine of the past 12 winners were either novices or second-season chasers. One novice winner since 2013; Chosen Mate (2020)
- Only two winners this century had more than 12 starts over fences
- The past ten winners were rated 138-150
- No non-novice winner in the past 12 years had won earlier in the season
- Runners who won a handicap chase earlier in the season have won this race since 2004
- Eight of the past 15 winners had run in the race previously. Respect fancied runners from last year’s renewal who may have lacked the necessary experience
- The past seven winners had been freshened up with this in mind; they had not raced for over 50 days. Five of those seven had been off the track for over three months
Grand Annual Chase Trends Verdict
On The Slopes was the ante-post favourite for this race last year but his mark was not high enough to earn him a run. A second season chaser with nine starts over fences, the two Cheltenham handicaps he contested earlier in the season have provided four of the past ten winners of this race.
Champion Bumper Trends
- Twenty-one of the 28 winners were trained in Ireland
- Willie Mullins has won the race ten times – His last five winners came at double-figure odds
- Of the 16 to finish in the front four since 2017, 11 were trained by either Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins
- The past 17 winners won last time out
- Mares have won two of the past four renewals with another finishing third from just nine runners
- Eighteen of the 28 winners were five years old; seven were aged six with three four-year-old winners
- Cheveley Park have won the past two renewals; no owner has won three
- Five of the past seven winners had run in three or four bumpers
- The past five winners ran in February
Champion Bumper Trends Verdict
With Mullins outsiders doing well recently, Grangee could well outrun her odds, with her claims being enhanced by the impressive recent record of mares.