2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Trends – Ryanair Chase and Stayers Hurdle Among Seven Top Race

Thousands of people will descend on the Cotswolds for the latest Cheltenham Festival, from novice racegoers through to veteran attendees.

Thousands of people will descend on the Cotswolds for the latest Cheltenham Festival, from novice racegoers through to veteran attendees.

2021 Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Trends

The Stayers Hurdle and Ryanair Chase feature among the seven races on day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival and Daniel Overall has crunched the numbers to bring you all the stats you need to make a success of your betting.

Marsh Novice Chase Trends

  • Nine of the ten winners were aged six (3) or seven (6) – Samcro being the exception when winning as an eight-year-old last year
  • All ten winners had run at a previous festival; five had won at a previous festival
  • All ten winners ran in a Graded novice chase last time out; seven won a Graded novice chase last time out
  • Nine of the ten winners had run nine times or less over hurdles
  • Only Yorkhill has done to Ballymore/Marsh double in successive seasons, although four of the ten winners of this race did contest last season’s Ballymore – Samcro won the Marsh two years after his Ballymore success
  • Only one winner had less than three starts over fences. That was Yorkhill; he was two from two over fences
  • Eight of the ten winners returned at 4/1 or shorter

Marsh Novice Chase Trends Verdict

Envoi Allen is hard to oppose and there are no obvious negatives to his chances in terms of the trends

Pertemps Final Trends

  • The past five winners were trained in Ireland
  • Gordon Elliott as trained the past three winners; he recorded a 1-2 in 2020 and 2018. Since 2016, all nine of his runners have finished in the first five
  • Only one winner this century was rated higher than 150 (Sire Du Berlais). However, two winners since 2014 have carried top weight to victory
  • Six of the past seven winners ran in the Leopardstown qualifier over the Christmas period
  • In the past 11 renewals, the average qualifying position of the winners was 4.36. Only two winners of the final have won a qualifier; Ballyfitz (2008) and Fingal Bay (2014); both won a qualifier on their last start before running in the final
  • Six of the past 11 winners failed to win earlier in the season
  • Six of the past eight winners had seven or less starts over hurdles
  • JP McManus has owned the winner five times; in the past three renewals, he’s won it twice with another finished second

Pertemps Final Trends Verdict

While not trained in Ireland, Champagne Platinum ticks a lot of boxes for an owner with a superb record in the race

Ryanair Chase Trends

  • All of the past 13 winners had won over a minimum of 2m4f
  • Ten of the past 13 winners had already won a Grade 1
  • All of the past 13 winners had raced at a previous festival. Ten either won or placed
  • Five of the past 12 winners hadn’t run since Christmas
  • Seven winners between 2008 and 2016 ran in the King George. However, none of the last four Ryanair winners did
  • Willie Mullins has won three of the past five renewals
  • Seven of the past 13 winners were coming back in trip from three miles or further
  • Since being made a Grade 1 in 2008, no six-year-old has won but two ten-year-olds have; Our Vic in 2008 and Albertas Run in 2011, who won it in 2010 too. Albertas Run also pulled up on his last start before winning the Ryanair in 2011

Ryanair Chase Trends Verdict

Min can emulate Albertas Run by winning back-to-back renewals; he is one of the few Grade 1 winners in the line-up while his trainer has a great recent record in the race

Stayers Hurdle

  • Twenty-eight of the past 31 winners were aged six to eight. The past four winners were all seven-year-olds. Of the four nine-year-old winners since 1988, three of them were repeat winners
  • Fifteen of the past 17 winners were first or second on their most recent start
  • The past three winners contested last season’s Albert Bartlett
  • Fourteen of the past 24 winners had won or placed at a previous festival
  • Inglis Drever was the last to regain his title; he missed a season due to injury
  • Seven of the past 17 winners were British bred; overperforming in comparison to most other festival races
  • No five-year-old has ever won

Stayers Hurdle Trends verdict

Thyme Hill would have been a strong contender and his absence is a shame. Fury Road ticks plenty of boxes and actually finished in front of Thyme Hill in last season’s Albert Bartlett. The seven-year-old should be suited by this test.

Paddy Power Plate Trends

  • The past five winners were novices or second-season chasers. They also contested a Graded novice chase or novice hurdle
  • The Irish have won three of the past five having; before 2016, their last winner came in 1982
  • David Pipe won this race three times from 2010-2014, Since his last winner in 2014, five of his six runners finished in the first five
  • The past seven winners were rated in the 140s
  • Only three winning favourites this season
  • Eleven of the past 17 winners had nine or less chase starts
  • Only one winner this century had more than 16 starts
  • Gigginstown have had four runners in the last five years, resulting in two wins

Paddy Power Plate Trends verdict

With his past three starts all coming in Grade 1 company, Assemble needs to bounce back from two recent falls but he should be suited by better ground. As a novice owned by Gigginstown, he’s entitled to respect.

Mares Novice Hurdle Trends

  • All five winners were trained by Willie Mullins, with a further three hitting the frame from 19 runners in total
  • All five winners began their careers in France
  • Four of the five winners were French bred
  • Four of the five winners were five-year-olds; Concertista (2020) was a six-year-old

Mares Novice Hurdle Trends Verdict

On limited evidence, the safest proposition for this race appears to be a French bred five-year-old trained by Willie Mullins; Hook Up fits the bill and she also began her career in France, which is another positive.

Kim Muir Chase Trends

  • Ten of the past 13 winners failed to win earlier in the season; including the last six
  • Nine of the past 12 winners ran during February
  • Eight of the past ten winners wore headgear
  • Only one of the past 18 winners won last-time-out; Ballabriggs in 2010. However, six of the past 11 winners finished in the first three last time out
  • Only one of the past 12 winners was rated below 137
  • The last 16 winners raced at least twice this season
  • The last eight Irish-trained favourites were all beaten
  • Fifteen of the past 16 winners were aged between seven and nine

Kim Muir Trends Verdict

Hold the Note ticks a lot of boxes and would have a good chance, but he does need to prove his stamina.

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