Cheltmental’s 2023 Pertemps Final Hurdle Preview

With the Handicap weights being announced, racing expert Dave Young (A.K.A. Cheltmental) will be bringing us a preview for the key Handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. He’ll guide us through some of the key trends to follow in the race, whilst also looking at some of the main players in the race this year. 

First up, he takes a look at the Pertemps Final Hurdle, ran on Day Three of the Festival.

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Last Ten Winners:

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Last 10 Years Key Stats:

• 9/10 AGED 6-8
• 9/10 DID NOT WIN THEIR QUALIFIER
• 8/10 RATED 138-148
• 7/10 RACED IN LAST 40 DAYS
• 7/10 PRICED DOUBLE FIGURES
• 7/10 HAD NOT RUN AT A PREVIOUS FESTIVAL
• 7/10 PLACED TOP 3 LAST TIME OUT
• 6/10 HAD NOT RUN AT CHELTENHAM
• 5/10 RAN SINCE THEIR QUALIFIER
• 5/10 WORE A TONGUE-TIE (4 OF THOSE HAD WORN IT PREVIOUSLY)
• 4/10 WORE HEADGEAR (3 OF THOSE FIRST TIME)
• TOP TRAINER: GORDON ELLIOT (3)
• TOP JOCKEY: DAVY RUSSELL (3)
• TOP QUALIFIER: PUNCHESTOWN & WARWICK (3)

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FANCIED RUNNERS

SHOOT FIRST

👀Gamble landed!

Shoot First justifies strong market support to win the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle @CheltenhamRaces for Charles Byrnes and Philip Byrnes #TheShowcase pic.twitter.com/ZbEbc32s9X

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 22, 2022

 

139 rated 7 year old trained by Charles Byrnes who has been well touted for this for some time now. He won his Qualifier back in Cheltenham at The October meeting which was last used by Buena Vista in 2010 & 2011 for both his victories in this. He did however run since which SHOOT FIRST has not done and coming here off a 145 day break would need to defy some long standing trends. The last horse to have such a break was Tulleybeg for Gordon Elliott who finished 18^th.

In the last 6 years there have been 6 horses with a break in excess of 120 days with a 4^th and 5^th the best any could manage. Has his chance because the mark looks workable but terribly short on balance.

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PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS

 

140-Rated 6 year old trained by Gavin Cromwell owned by JP McManus who knows how to own a Handicap winner, especially at The Festival.

Qualified back at Christmas when 4^th to Maxxum and has won since but probably needed to do that to ensure his place in this final. Looks like there’s more to come so overall has the right profile to be on the shortlist and seems to handle any ground.

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THANKSFORTHEHELP

Cheltenham dark horse? 👀

Thanksforthehelp wins as he pleases in the feature Pertemps Qualifier at @Chepstow_Racing for @kevinbrogan109, JP McManus and @DavidPipeRacing… pic.twitter.com/ADx7nHihHH

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 25, 2023

 

128-Rated 6 year old trained by David Pipe, again for JP McManus and the trainer won this twice with Buena Vista, plus is a notorious shrewd operator.

126 got in the race back in 2021 but the lowest outside that was 131 and most bottom lines have been 134+ so might ordinarily have a job to get in here although the qualification has changed to top 4 now and he’s already 24^th on the list in a max field size of 24.

Hacked up following a Wind Op at Chepstow last month in first time cheekpieces to join his usual tongue-tie and that apparatus has been seen to good use in this race. Looks to have a serious chance.

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MAXXUM

 

145-Rated 6yo trained by Gordon Elliott who has vying for favouritism before a well beaten favourite at The Dublin Racing Festival last month.

Curious result as he was well supported but he was racing off an 18lb higher mark tan his Christmas win so it’s plausible he’s just been caught up now by the Handicapper. He’s 8lb higher over here too.

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THE BOSSES OSCAR

 

145-Rated 8yo for Gordon Elliott and was favourite for this race in 2021 when second to Mrs Milner. That came off a 6lb higher mark than now, he won over the summer and was good in his qualifier to finish third at 40/1.

Has a chance for all to see but this could be tougher than the 2021 renewal.

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SALVADOR ZIGGY

 

147-Rated 7yo for Gordon Elliott who qualified back in Cheltenham behind Shoot First and has also been kept off the track since. The winner is up 12lb now and Ziggy is up just 2 for a 4-length defeat so you’d say he’s fairly treated on balance, yet he’s twice the price.

A few people have fancied this horse for a while now but he looks a good ground horse to me so unless that’s the ground come Thursday, I’d be leaning away from him.

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WALKING ON AIR

A @sevenbarrows treble! 🏇

Walking On Air gets back in the winning groove by landing the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle @ExeterRaces in fine style under a confident @NdeBoinville.

That's his ticket booked for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham next month! pic.twitter.com/wF1GEESOw3

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 12, 2023

 

138-Rated 6yo for Nicky Henderson and a horse who was expected to be a serious prospect when just a Novice Hurdler.

Hasn’t done much to suggest his mark is a winnable one in this depth of race but been improving with every run this season and while he’s been kept to relatively flat tracks, I see no reason why he couldn’t handle Cheltenham.

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CAPTAIN MORGS

 

141-Rated 7yo for Nicky Henderson who is up 10lbs since qualifying back in November. Won here in the December meeting since but similar to Salvador Ziggy, I think he needs quicker ground to show his best.

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VERDICT

Not sure I spy a sleeper at bigger prices this season and I think the qualification change to top 4 will prove to be a game-changer in what it takes to land this race now.

So while he doesn’t tick the most trend boxes of all those mentioned I think that THANKSFORTHEHELP looks a glaringly obvious hopeful who won’t be stopped by an 11lb rise.