2020 Kim Muir Chase Tips – Two tips for day three Handicap

A view of the final fence in last year's Kim Muir Handicap Chase.

A view of the final fence in last year’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase.

Kim Muir Chase Tips

Jon Vine takes a look through the ante-post betting for the final race on day three of the Cheltenham Festival and provides readers with two Kim Muir Handicap Chase tips on Thursday 12th March.

The curtain comes down on St Patrick’s day at the Cheltenham Festival with the Kim Muir, a handicap chase with a long, storied history. I haven’t managed to find the winner in this race yet, but my 22/1 outsider, The Young Master made the places 12 months ago, and Mall Dini came within half-a-length of catching Missed Approach in 2018.

I’ve had a look back at the last ten renewals of the Kim Muir and highlighted three key trends. I then sifted through the ante-post betting and picked out two Kim Muir Chase tips.

Key Trends

  • All of the last ten winners carried 11-04 or more
  • Nine of the last ten winners were aged between seven and nine
  • Eight of the last ten winners had run in a Graded race that season

Other Targets

The Conditional (20/1 Unibet) and Jerrysback (20/1 Unibet) sit on marks below the 145-ceiling for the Kim Muir and both would have to be regarded as serious contenders were they to make an appearance. David Bridgewater, The Conditional’s trainer, seemed to be leaning towards a run in the Ultima when he spoke to the press after Warwick. Philip Hobbs and JP McManus have No Comment lined up for a second crack at the Kim Muir, so it seems likely Jerrysback will join The Conditional in the Ultima. Read my preview of the Ultima here.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase Tips – Tip One

I’m sure Ben Pauling will have been eyeing the Ultima as LE BREUIL’S (16/1 Ladbrokes) final outing before going for the Grand National. However, the handicapper’s decision to drop last year’s National Hunt winner back down to 145 opens the door to the Kim Muir – a race many National hopefuls have used as a stepping stone down the years.

Le Breuil was produced magnificently by Jamie Codd to win the four-miler last year. While things haven’t gone to plan since, Le Breuil was held up in both the Becher and the Classic Chase, and on neither occasion was he really encouraged to get fully involved. Connections would be foolish not to have a crack at the Kim Muir, especially when there’s a chance – with 70 horses ahead of him in the weights – Le Breuil might not even get into the Grand National.

Le Breuil Discorama National Hunt Chase Cheltenham

Le Breuil (right) edges out Discorama (left) in the National Hunt Chase in 2019.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase Tips – Tip Two

I initially selected MULCAHYS HILL (50/1 Unibet) in the No Odds section, as he didn’t feature in the ante-post market. However, Warren Greatrex’s charge did feature in the list of entries when they were announced last week and I think he’s been massively overlooked.

12 months ago, Mulcahys Hill was partnered by Noel McParlan in the National Hunt Chase. After falling when clearly out of gas, Greatrex’s charge received treatment on the track for five minutes before getting back to his feet. Thankfully, there were no ill-affects from that tumble as Mulcahys Hill made a winning reappearance here at Cheltenham, outstaying Wholestone over three miles at the Showcase Meeting.

Despite being backed into favouritism, Greatrex’s charge flopped in the Becher Chase, where he clearly didn’t enjoy the National fences. Mulcahys Hill then settled for second in a match-race with Aye Right, where Adrian Heskin eased his mount down when he knew his race was run.

Trainer Warren Greatrex celebrated wildly as Missed Approach handed him the Kim Muir trophy in 2018, and I’m sure he would love another crack at this handicap.